2024 Battery Roadmaps

A look at the 2024 Battery Roadmaps and perhaps the direction that the battery and application industry are moving towards. The data has been taken from the last half of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.

battery cell roadmap

2 years ago we plotted a Cell Energy Density Roadmap.

Then as an update in 2024 we overlaid the actual cell specifications (grey dots).

Although there are some cells just over 400Wh/kg the improvement in Wh/kg is quite tame.

Perhaps the most important roadmap is that from BYD and one interesting point is their proposed development of Sodium Ion for 2025 [4]:

  • 180Wh/kg
  • 6000 cycles
  • 70 to 80% of the LFP material cost

This would give BYD a very strong position for even lower cost battery packs. They have started with an investment in a 30GWh sodium ion facility [5].

CATL release lots of news items and hence more difficult to extract their core direction, but they are pushing energy denisty to 330Wh/kg and extending cycle with their high nickel cells. They are also suggesting they will be increasing the operating voltage of the cells.

  • Higher density cells
  • Faster charging
  • CTP4.0
  • Sodium Ion cells

LG Energy Solutions are targetting NCMA, improved processing and higher safety.

  • Single Particle Cathode Materials Low effective surface area and high structural stability reduce gas generation and extend cycle life at high voltage
  • New Electrolyte for High Voltage System Gas Generation During HT Cycling 100% 19% Secondary Particle Single Particle Lowering electrolyte oxidation and metal dissolution extends high voltage cycle life while reducing gas.
  • Hybrid Conducting Agent System with a mix of 0D / 1D conducting agent that reduces cell resistance and improves producibility

This post has been built based on the support and sponsorship from: Thermo Fisher ScientificEatron TechnologiesAbout:EnergyAVANT Future MobilityQuarto Technical Services and TAE Power Solutions.

The Fraunhofer Institute [3] releases a yearly update to their battery chemistry roadmap and it is a substantial review. We have cut the table down and removed the current position. At a high level they suggest:

  • Sodium ion cells being an alternative to LFP for 2/3 wheeled vehicles and finding a place in more vehicles where cold temperature operation is key.
  • Lithium Sulfur likely to be used in large drones by 2035 and eVTOLs from 2040.
  • Stationary applications are likely to move towards Sodium Ion in the near term based on resource availability with Zinc Ion batteries possibly being used in for their low cost and environmental credentials around 2025 to 2030.

BMW have the first prototype solid state cells from Solid Power. Their Neue Klasse models will be out around 2025 and expect to see low cost chemistry and high power options.

Toyota 2023 battery roadmap

Toyota set out their battery roadmap in September 2023 [1]. The key directions were:

  1. higher power, longer driving range, faster charging and lower cost
  2. solid-state moving to mass production
  3. height reduction key to improvements in driving range

Conclusions

From all of this our summary is:

  1. Sodium Ion cells to become the next step in the story of Blade for BYD from 2025. This is whilst the industry thinks that Sodium Ion will be used in 2/3 wheeled vehicles initially and stationary storage systems.
  2. Lower cost LFP chemistry for mainstream vehicle manufacturers – this is definitely a late reaction to BYD’s powerful demonstration of LFP Blade design.
  3. More 46xx cell applications from BMW, GM and Rimac- are they too late and has the Blade LFP surpassed this “lower cost” design route?
  4. Charge times coming down to ~10 minutes in the late 2020’s.
  5. Solid state making an early entry to automotive market around 2027-2028
  6. Zinc Ion battery technology could offer a cheaper and more environmental longer term BESS.
  7. Lithium Sulfur is a possible 2035 to 2040 Drone and eVTOL technology, but significant development required.

References

  1. Toyota sets out advanced battery technology roadmap, Toyota Media
  2. BMW One Step Closer To Rivaling Tesla’s EV Dominance, CarBuzz
  3. Are there alternatives to the lithium-ion battery?, Fraunhofer ISI
  4. BYD Sodium Ion, Battery Bulletin, X
  5. BYD breaks ground on its first sodium-ion EV battery plant, electrek
  6. Innovative Technology, CATL

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