Have you wondered while researching for a certain topic like for Example Number of Gigafactories or Number of Charging Stations by 20XX year like how do you arrive at that Vehicles Sales projection number?
Well I have. My Objective was initially to find out what recycling capacity we need for batteries then I went into many sources like IEA, Bloomberg and well they have the numbers for 2030, 40, 50. So over the last few evenings and weekends I have been researching numbers and doing excels. My Target is for forecasting to year 2050.
So where do you start for anything related to Vehicles or Electric Vehicles. The Answer is Sales. Everything can be derived from the Sales of Vehicles: the number of Factories or Gigafactories, Production Volume, Raw Material Requirement, Infrastructure requirement in Automotive. Simple how many Gigafactories we need, well for 1000 Tesla S with 60 kWh we need 60,000kWh or 60MWh or 0.06GWh of battery Factory.
Part 1: What will be the Global Stock of Vehicles in 2050?
To answer any forecasting question the first thing we do is look at the actual numbers.
Part 1.1 ACTUALS
List of Actual Data as a base for forecasting:
- Sales of Vehicles per Year by Region (Europe, Africa, Asia, Americas) from 2011 to 2021
- Sales of Vehicles per Year by Vehicle Type (Cars, LCV, CV, Busses) from 2011 to 2021
- World Population by Region (Europe, Africa, Asia, Americas) from 2011 to 2020
- Ratio of Sales of Vehicles per Year to World Population by region from 2011 to 2020 (%)
- End of Life % assumption per year
Part 1.1.1 – Sales of Vehicles per Year from 2011 to 2021
Part 1.1.2 – Sales of Vehicles by Type from 2011 to 2021
Part 1.1.3 – World population from 2011 to 2021 actuals
- Europe – 738 to 745 Million, 1% growth
- Africa – 1083 to 1394 Million, 29% Growth
- Asia – 4307 to 4739, 10% Growth
- Americas – 946 to 1031, 9% Growth.
Part 1.1.4 – Sales of Vehicles per Year to Population by Region in % (both in Millions)
Part 1.2 Forecasting – 2022 to 2050
Well we have seen how many vehicles per year are sold by categories and also regions. The Total Global stock though is difference of Sales per year and Vehicles Recycled/Discarded. The Cars get resold after deregistration or they are shipped to other countries for recycling.
Thus, End of Life (EOL) Vehicles contain a lot variables. But based on Vehicle Stock projections 2011 to 2020, the rate was about 60%. Assuming EOL grows at 0.5% per year to 75% in 2050.
Part 1.2.1 – End of Life vehicles % to Total Vehicle Sales per year
Part 1.2.2 – Sales of Vehicles per Year to Population by Region in % (both in Millions) – 2011 to 2050
I have considered regional sales of vehicle growth rate to population by region as average from 2011 to 2019. Continuing from 2022 I have multiplied the 2019 rate by below average growth by region cumulatively year on year (YoY). For Example: Europe 2% 2019, so 2022 will be 2.006% of Europe population, 2023 will be 2.012% of Europe 2023 population and so on.
- Europe 0.006%
- Asia including Oceania 0.014%
- Africa 0.004%
- Americas 0.012%
- Total World 0.007%
Part 1.3 Conclusion
Part 1.3.1 Total Global Vehicle Stock by Region (Europe, Africa, Asia, Americas). 2011 to 2050
Thus if we multiply the population growth by region by % sales per year by region, we get Total vehicle sales per year. Removing the end of life vehicles from it gives us net vehicles added to the Total Stock. 2021 the Stock of Global stock of Vehicles was 1450 Million. Thus we can forecast growth of Vehicle stock by Region.
Total Global Vehicle Stock Growth:
- 2021 – 1450 millions
- 2030 – 1788 millions
- 2040 – 2159 millions
- 2050 – 2510 millions
End of life is quite important with respect to calculation of Stock of Vehicles. The rate of increase I have assumed – if it increases, then we will have lower Global Stock (due to more vehicles being recycled than assumed). But that also means shorter years of usage and many other factors.
Total Vehicle Stock Growth by Region:
- Europe – 2011 – 283 Million to 2050 – 500 Million, Growth 76.7%
- Asia – 2011 – 548 Million to 2050 – 1450 Million, Growth 164.5%
- Africa – 2011 – 8 Million to 2050 – 43 Million, Growth 437.5%
- Americas – 2011 – 240 Million to 2050 – 518 Million, Growth 115.8%
Part 1.3.2 Vehicles Sales/year by Region (Europe, Africa, Asia, America) 2011 to 2050
Even if the Vehicle Sales % per year grow the population remains quite constant in Europe. Thus, there is not much sales per year growth in Europe. Whereas all other regions, especially Asia show a lot of growth by Volume (78.6 Million) & Africa by % Growth (733%).
Detailed Growth data of Sales by Year per Region below:
- Europe – 2011 – 21 Million to 2050 – 21.6 Million, Growth 2.8%
- Asia – 2011 – 40.6 Million to 2050 – 78.6 Million, Growth 93.6%
- Africa – 2011 – 0.6 Million to 2050 – 5 Million, Growth 733%
- Americas – 2011 – 17.8 Million to 2050 – 27.3 Million, Growth 53.4%
Part 1.3.3 Total Global Vehicle Stock by Vehicle Category (Cars, LCV, CV, Buses) 2011 to 2050
Growth of Vehicle Stock by Vehicle Category:
- Cars: 778 Million 2011 to 1794 Million 2050.
- LCV: 244 Million 2011 to 577 Million 2050.
- HCV: 56 Million to 134 Million 2050.
- Buses: 3 Million to 7 Million 2050.
Part 1.3.4 Vehicles Sales/year by Vehicle Category (Cars, LCV, CV, Buses) 2011 to 2050
Growth of Vehicle Sales/Year by Vehicle Category:
- Cars: 57.6 Million 2011 to 95.1 Million 2050.
- LCV: 18 Million 2011 to 30 Million 2050.
- HCV: 4.1 Million to 7 Million 2050.
- Buses: 0.24 Million to 0.37 Million 2050.
A lot of sources say 2038 will be the peak of Vehicle or cars sales with a gradual decline afterwards. But I haven’t included this for now but will include it as I get more clearer understanding of the peak and what may be the rate of slowdown in Sales.
Comparing vs Some more Noted Market Data Companies to see where my forecast lands:
- EIA forecasts 2.21 Billion LDV by 2050, I have Cars + LCV = 2.4 Billion by 2050
- Bloomberg NEF says roughly 1.45 to 1.5 Billion Passenger Vehicle Fleet by 2040, My Forecast has it at 1.409 Billion.
- Bloomberg NEF also says total LCV+MCV+HCV Sales in 2040 to be about 28-30Million. My calculation is roughly 33.56Million.
With this I can now establish a base for calculations for the next parts. I am quite sure there are more variables involved than what I have put used for forecasting. Its easy to read analysis by big market data companies but difficult to understand the logic by which they came upon the data. This exercise and steps is helping me understand the different Vehicle Growth reports and challenges we face in the Automotive Industry in the next 30 years. If you have any feedback or improvement ideas or corrections please let me know. Onwards and upwards towards next part.
2 thoughts on “Electric Vehicles Forecasting – Part 1”
A really interesting piece of work Aditya, with some good, sensible conclusions. One of the key factors you have highlighted is the volume/physical scale of EOL hardware to be processed. Equally the scale of new feedstock materials to build the new vehicles. I rather suspect this means we need to heavily accelerate our (the world’s) capability and capacity to recover precious and high value materials from the EOL assets. Equally, I am a fervent believer that every domestic residence (as well as all commercial buildings and facilities) will require an energy storage device in the future, to help with grid/distribution network resilience. For the UK alone, this will means somewhere in the region of 30 million residential batteries, of around 6-10kWh capacity. Will these come from repurposed car batteries, or do we need to manufacture new ones to match demand, compounding the problem on materials sources and feedstock?
Thank you Steve. My derivation of EOL is when I see the Actual stock from previous years is only changing at 60% to the sales of the year. The Net Average EOL of Cars in EU is 12 years with 17 years in Romania as largest. For Trucks and Buses its 13 to 14 years with Greece with EOL of 19 years. Thus even if we recycle in automotive industry 90% we have a long life on cars which is again personal choice depending on situations. EOL is even longer sometimes because cars are deregistered and then sold outside EU to africa and Asia where the EOL is anyway longer. Thus this means we will keep adding to the Vehicle stock as the Recycling will always lag by 15 -20 years behind Sales per year and growth.
Reference to recovering materials this is important in case of EV as you wont see any sizeable recycling till 2035-40. Stock of EV in 2021 was about 10.2 Million thus not a big amount to be recycled soon.
Also with EV Batteries the second life depending on Tests and economics may be storage first and then after storage recycling.
EV adoption is increasing but the correct Environmental solution is the harmony of Green Energy, Storage Batteries, Charging Infrastructure (peak V2G and off peak G2V), Electric Vehicle and Autonomous Vehicles.
So yes Battery materials will be strained because nothing can be recycled as above till a certain time. The need will be better Energy Density or Na Ion but I am not expert in that.